| presented in Table 4. The data indicate a small but not insubstantial percentage of window manufacturers (13.5%) will be interested in offering switchable glass products if the incremental manufacturing costs to produce such products are in the range of $26 to $50 per square foot. A much larger percentage, 47.4%, believe their respective company will be interested in offering switchable products if their incremental manufacturing costs are in the range of $11 to $25 per square foot. [1] Table 4. Likelihood of Offering Switchable Glass Windows at Various Incremental Manufacturers’ Prices per square foot Price Ranges (per sf) % Likely* > $50 6.8% $26 - $50 13.5% $11 - $25 47.4% $5 - $10 80.6% $2.50 - $4.99 88.6% < $2.50 89.2% * Cumulative Totals Expected Level of Market Penetration As an emerging technology, switchable glass for windows is in the earliest stages of its product life cycle with only a very limited global presence at this time. In order to assess expectations for adoption of this class of technologies, respondents were asked to give their expected level of market penetration for the technology by 2005. Respondents whose companies serve the residential market give a median level of expected market penetration of switchable glass for windows (installed or retrofitted) of 3.6%, while those serving the commercial market expect a 6.2% level of market penetration. [1] Expected Pace of New Product Launches Finally, respondents were asked to rate their expectations for the pace of new product launches by window manufacturers over the next 5 years. The results indicate that overall, United States window manufacturers expect a moderately strong level of new product introduction through 2005, with 61.2% claiming they expect the pace of new product launches to be either “very strong” or “somewhat strong.” Just 0.6% of those surveyed said that the pace of new product launches in the industry through 2005 will be “very weak.” These results are summarized in Table 5. [1] | Table 5. Expected Pace of New Product Launches by Window Manufacturers/Next 5 Years Category % Very Strong 18.1% Somewhat Strong 43.1% Somewhat Weak 31.4% Very Weak 0.6% Unsure/Don’t Know 6.8% RESULTS OF SELECTED HYPOTHESIS TESTS Manufacturers’ Interest in Offering Switchable Glass Windows The contact list of United States window manufacturers included recent annual sales estimates. These were aggregated in a manner that grouped the participating companies into two categories based on their sales volumes: 1.) higher sales volume manufacturers, hereinafter referred to as “Tier I” companies, and 2.) lower sales volume manufacturers, described as “Tier II” companies. An objective of the study was to examine whether statistically significant differences exist in terms of manufacturers’ interest based on sales volume status. A t-test of independent means was used to examine the null hypothesis that no significant difference exists between the two groups. Response categories were assumed to be interval in nature, and mean scores were derived using a 1 to 4 scale, where 1 is “very disinterested” and 4 “very interested.” Table 6 summarizes the results for the residential market. These results indicate that individuals from Tier II (lower sales volume) companies have a much greater interest in offering switchable glass products than their counterparts at Tier I (higher sales volume) companies. Further, the statistical significance of this difference is very high (p<0.01). From a commercialization perspective, it is important to note that both groups displayed, at minimum, mid -range levels of interest regardless of status. Table 6. Manufacturers’ Interest in Offering Switchable Glass Products/Residential Market Test of Independent Means Tier I Tier II Mean 2.000 2.952 Standard error 0.376 0.162 t -2.463 Significance (1-tailed) p=0.009 |