| window manufacturers, likely serving specialty markets, may be among the first companies to offer switchable glass products to their customers. Pearson correlation analyses also were conducted to examine the association between manufacturers’ interest in offering switchable glass products and the percentage of their window products that are sold to residential markets. The association between the percentage of a manufacturer’s window products offered to residential markets and a manufacturer’s interest in offering switchable glass products to residential homeowners is moderately negative (-0.237), and somewhat statistically significant (p<0.10). The association between the percentage of a manufacturer’s window products offered to residential markets and a manufacturer’s interest in offering switchable glass products to commercial developers is slightly negative (-0.148) and not significant (p<0.25). Thus, to some degree, the data indicate that as window manufacturers’ product mix shifts away from the residential market and toward the commercial market, interest in offering switchable glass products increases. MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS The previously completed hypothesis tests found that a window manufacturer’s interest in offering switchable glass products over the next 3 years differs quite significantly based on the amount of the firm’s annual sales volume and somewhat significantly based on the mix of a firm’s sales to residential and commercial customers. The researcher wanted to use this information to develop models that predict a window manufacturer’s likelihood of offering switchable glass products over the next three years to the residential market and to the commercial market. The technique employed is multiple linear regression. In this particular analysis, the dependent variable is “likelihood of offering switchable glass products over the next three years,” and the independent (predictor) variables are “company sales volume” (Tier I versus Tier II) and the status as a company equal to/more likely or less likely than others to offer window products to the residential market (Group A versus Group B). The data in Table 10 indicate that approximately one-fifth (17.8%) of the variation in manufacturers’ interest in offering switchable glass products to residential homeowners over the next three years is explained by differences in their annual sales volume and by differences in the percentage of window products sold to the residential market. Further, the analysis results in a test statistic value (F) of 5.867 and a high level of statistical significance (p<0.01). | Table 10. Multiple Linear Regression Results Dependent Variable: Interest in Offering Switchable Glass Products to Residential Market/Next 3 Years Adjusted r-square 0.178 F 5.867 Significance p=0.006 Extending the regression analysis to focus on manufacturers’ interest in offering switchable glass products to the commercial market over the next 3 years, the model has less predictive power. Just 3.7% of the variation in manufacturers’ interest is explained by the independent variables. The statistical significance of this result also is quite low (p<0.25). Table 11. Multiple Linear Regression Results Dependent Variable: Interest in Offering Switchable Glass Products to Commercial Market/Next 3 Years Adjusted r-square 0.037 F 1.562 Significance p=0.228 CONCLUSION The 2000 study of United States window manufacturers offers business decision makers a unique perspective on the attitudes and expectations of these manufacturers toward switchable glass products. The study found strong levels of awareness of switchable glass technology in general, but substantially lower levels for selected types of switchable technologies. Since the completion of the research (summer 2000), commercialization activity and concomitant publicity and press coverage have grown markedly, particularly in the area of suspended particle device technology. This likely has increased awareness of SPD technology specifically and that of switchable glass technology in general. Knowledge of switchable glass technology also is quite limited and is primarily restricted to the fact that switchable glass can control the amount of light transmitted through glass, and that this control function is accomplished through the use of an electrical interface. The study finds window manufacturers’ expectation of end-user interest in switchable glass over the next three years is strong in both the residential and commercial markets. Further, manufacturers’ interest in offering switchable glass window products is fairly strong as well. |
| A variety of attributes of switchable glass products were presented to respondents. Those surveyed cite durability, reduction of glare and heat, the ability to be used with lowe glass and control of daylight as the attributes they expect will be most important to end-users. A notable difference is observed regarding the importance of an almost instantaneous tint change. Respondents believe that an almost instantaneous tint change will be more important to the residential market than it will be to the commercial market. Expectations for ma rket penetration of switchable glass products vary by segment. Respondents serving the residential segment expect penetration of switchable glass in the residential market to be 3.6% by 2005 (installed or retrofitted), while those offering products to the commercial market anticipate a penetration rate in that market by that time of 6.2%. Some degree of price sensitivity is observed regarding switchable glass products for windows, with nearly half of all respondents claiming their company would be likely to offer switchable glass products if the incremental manufacturing cost per square foot were in the range of $11 to $25. Nearly one-seventh (13.5%) said their company would be likely to offer these products at incremental manufacturing costs of $26 to $50 per square foot. Finally, statistical testing revealed that significant differences exist in manufacturers’ interest in offering switchable glass products to the residential or commercial markets over the next three years based on the size of a company’s annual revenue. Individuals from smaller companies express a significantly higher level of interest in offering switchable glass products than do their larger counterparts. Individuals whose companies offer a lower percentage of window products to residential customers than other companies sampled also are more likely to claim their companies will be interested in offering switchable glass products over the next three years, although this result is only moderately statistically significant. Integrating firm data regarding annual sales volume and the amount of window products offered to each market into a multiple linear regression analysis leads to several conclusions. The analysis finds that these two variables account for nearly one-fifth of the variation in manufacturers’ interest in offering switchable glass products to the residential market over the next three years. This result is highly significant. Less predictive and less significant is the model’s ability to forecast manufacturers’ interest in offering switchable glass products to the commercial market over the next three years. | The information developed from this nationwide study of window manufacturers signals opportunities for companies involved in developing and marketing switchable glass products. Awareness levels are strong, and anecdotal evidence suggests this level may be rising due to a growing amount of related publicity. However, in-depth knowledge of specific switchable glass technologies and their inherent benefits is limited. Interest levels in the technology are fairly strong, as are the expectations for the technology’s market penetration. However, these positive forces are somewhat offset by a degree of perceived price sensitivity regarding the technology that is exhibited by many of the window manufacturers surveyed. The study’s findings indicate that incremental manufacturing costs of $100 or more per square foot will meet with substantial resistance by window manufacturers. Even so, it is possible that price sensitivities may decline as end-user demand increases for switchable glass products. In the final analysis, optimal commercialization of switchable glass technology will occur when market demand ultimately warrants the incremental costs associated with the production and sale of switchable glass products, thus leading to an acceptable and sustainable return on investment for the companies involved. REFERENCES 1. M.R. LaPointe and G.M. Sottile, “2000 Survey of Window Manufacturers on the Subject of Switchable Glass,” Proceedings of SPIE – The International Society of Optical Engineering, Solar and Switching Materials, Vol. 4458, p.112, 2001. |